By Page H. Gifford
Correspondent
Overall, the economic outlook for farmers in Virginia in 2025 is a mix of positive and negative factors. While there are forecasts for a record-high corn yield and various state and federal support programs, farmers continue to face significant challenges, including rising costs, market volatility, and the effects of climate change.
The agricultural industry remains a crucial part of Virginia’s economy, with annual farm sales generating an estimated $6.1 billion. According to national forecasts, the outlook for farm businesses specializing in animal products is generally more positive than for those specializing in crops. A notable positive for Virginia is the forecast for a new all-time high corn yield of 175 bushels per acre for 2025.
However, the median farm income for U.S. farm households is forecast to be negative, indicating that many farm households primarily rely on off-farm income. Farmers have always faced challenges, mostly unpredictable environmental factors. Climate change and unpredictable weather patterns, including drought conditions in Northern Virginia and the potential for hurricanes like Helene to cause damage, present ongoing risks.
Farmers have always struggled with pests destroying crops. Virginia is handling the detection and potential treatment of invasive pests, such as the box tree moth and imported fire ants. This is a constant challenge for growers: how to eradicate non-native invasive species.
Farmers are facing increasing operational costs for expenses such as equipment, livestock, crop inputs, animal feed, and labor. Market volatility, including tariffs, has been cited as a potential threat, as they can reduce demand for American goods in key markets like Canada and China, cutting into farm revenues and making small farms especially vulnerable.
Farmers in Virginia, particularly in Fluvanna, insist on sticking it out. Not only have farms and farming been passed through generations and become a way of life, but the expectations of success and failure has always been part of agribusiness.
There is government and industry support. The state government has announced several initiatives and grants to support Virginia farmers in 2025. Some deadlines have passed, but others will be taking applications for various farming needs in the coming year. To search for grants and other links, visit https://virginia.thegrantportal.com/agriculture-and-farming.
Although the number of farms is decreasing, agricultural output is increasing, thanks in large part to efficiencies and advances in agricultural science. In Fluvanna, other than the traditional farming, many have turned to specific products such as vineyards, apiaries, eggs, and American-made wool. Between 2017 and 2022, when the number of Virginia farms decreased by 10 percent, sales of products sourced from Virginia farms grew from about $4 billion to about $5.5 billion.
Furthermore, the variety of agricultural jobs is growing. “More than 300 careers are now considered agricultural,” said Andy Seibel of the Virginia Future Farmers of America (FFA), which provides leadership skills for students in grades seven through 12. “Students today can pursue careers in biotechnology, veterinary science, sports turf management, and a variety of other fields,” Seibel said. “The careers that these kids are going to have the opportunity for are endless. It’s just trying to make sure that everybody understands that that’s still a component of agriculture.”
Because of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, Virginia farms could face both immediate and long-term economic consequences from those countries in return.
Virginia Tech assistant professor of agriculture and applied economics and agricultural trade policy analyst Xi He, discussed the challenges Virginia’s agricultural industry could expect and navigate.
“With tariffs raising the price of potash, a vital fertilizer component sourced largely from Canada, which supplies over 85 percent of U.S. needs, the strain on Virginia’s agricultural industry would particularly impact production costs of tobacco, corn, soybeans, wheat, and barley,” Xi He said. A key point he makes is, “Retaliatory tariffs from Mexico, Canada, and China in response to U.S. tariffs would particularly affect Virginia soybeans, poultry, pork, and tobacco, as these face significant economic threats tied to disrupted trade with key partners,” Retaliatory tariffs make it more costly for foreign countries to purchase U.S. agricultural products compared to products from other origins, which could reduce demand for U.S. products and depress prices.”
He added that Virginia’s agricultural production will face significant uncertainty, especially during the critical planting season. Farmers would have to decide whether to plant soybeans, expand poultry, or adjust rotations, with markets like China and Canada in a state of flux.
Before the U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, Virginia’s agricultural industry was a robust economic force, contributing $3 billion in agricultural exports in 2024 and $3.2 billion in 2023, with China accounting for $171 million, Canada with $338 million, and Mexico $179 million. The state ranked high nationally for poultry and leaned heavily on exports.
“Small farms, over 90 percent of Virginia’s around 40,000 operations, will be especially vulnerable, as they often lack the financial cushion to absorb these shocks. Faced with rising input costs and declining export opportunities, many could struggle to stay afloat,” said Xi He.
In the future, the good news is that as farmers find other ways to sell their crops for other uses, including soybeans being used in tires or soles of shoes. Farming has been the backbone of America for centuries, and as the need for certain crops evolves and markets change, farmers always find ways to adapt.
In short, while the Fluvanna farming community is active and resilient, the individual farmers’ success largely depends on their specific business model and their ability to maneuver these complex economic and environmental factors.
